With militias formed, looting reported and people killed in skirmishes in the capital Mogadishu, many experts fear the Horn of Africa country is descending into an Iraqi-style instability.

“The most difficult for the Ethiopians will not be to take over (the capital) but to hold on,” Sally Healy, an associate fellow at the London-based Chatham House Institute on International Relations, told Agency France Press (AFP).

In a week, thousands of Ethiopian troops equipped with tanks, heavy artillery and MiG fighters have routed the Supreme Islamic Courts of Somalia (SICS) forces and entered the war-scared capital.

Gunfire and outbreaks of looting marked the end of months of relative stability that began when the SICS chased US-backed warlords from the city in June.

For years, residents suffered clan-based fighting and extortion at a myriad of checkpoints manned by rifle-toting warlord militiamen.

Many in the capital of 2 million people feared a return to widespread violence as militia loyal to the warlords resurfaced on the streets in their “technicals” — pick-up trucks bristling with heavy weaponry.

At least five people were killed when local militia opened fire during a looting spree at a weapons store north of the capital, witnesses said.

The SICS, which until last week was in control of the capital and much of southern Somalia, quit Mogadishu earlier in the day to “avert heavy bombing because Ethiopian forces are practicing genocide against the Somali people.”

It said troops were staging a “tactical retreat” in the face of Ethiopian air strikes and would engage in long-term guerilla war with the invading troops.

Analysts insist the question now is how Ethiopia can secure its victory in a country that has known only chaos since 1991 and against an enemy likely to turn to guerrilla warfare.

“Urban guerrilla warfare and attacks in city centers and outside the country are probable,” said Roland Marchal, an analyst at the Center for International Studies and Research in Paris.

He described the situation as a sort of “African Iraq or Afghanistan”.

If Ethiopia maintains a military occupation, “the people, sooner or later, will end up opposing what they will see as invaders,” said Marchal.

But if Ethiopian troops leave, he added, “the Islamic Courts will spring back up.”

Healy, the British expert, believes that the Iraq experience could apply to this war.

She said the SICS might initially be beaten in Mogadishu, they will likely become “radicalized” and unwilling to accept a negotiated peace.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a Western military expert agreed.

He told AFP what the Ethiopians most risk “is that what happened to the Americans in Iraq happens to them — the loss of their soldiers and then them finally being forced to retreat.”

The SICS has already called on Muslims worldwide to flock to the African country to join “jihad” against the Ethiopians.

The Islamic state of Iraq has urged Muslims to support the SICS against Ethiopia.

“Your brothers in Somalia are waging major battles against the crusader enemies who are in cahoots with the apostates of the transitional Somali government backed by the countries of the crusader alliance, chiefly the US administration,” said a statement posted on the Internet, whose authenticity could not be confirmed.

Ethiopia, a predominantly Christian country, launched its offensive with the support of the US.

Many experts fear tensions could spread to neighboring countries, especially Eritrea, reportedly backs the SICS.

“It is very, very dangerous. The conditions are ripening for a potential regional conflict,” said Kurt Shillinger, a specialist on terrorism and Islam at the South African Institute of International Affairs.

He added that “long standing ethnic and regional problems that simply can’t go away in the short term” could fuel a widening conflict.

UN special envoy for Somalia, Francois Lonseny Fall, has told the UN Security Council he was pessimistic if prolonged guerrilla fighting precluded a brokered truce.

“[Somalia] will face a period of deepening conflict and heightened instability, which would be disastrous for the long-suffering people of Somalia, and could have serious consequences for the entire region.”

IslamOnline/Agencies

Saddam Hussein has said goodbye to his two half-brothers as he awaits execution, but US and Iraqi officials have given conflicting accounts of when he will be hanged.

A senior US security official said the former president could go to the gallows as early as Saturday.

However, Iraqi officials backed away from suggestions that they would definitely hang him within a month and a cabinet minister said a week-long religious holiday would stay any execution.

“He was in very high spirits and clearly readying himself,” Badie Aref, a defence lawyer, told Reuters after the 69-year-old former leader met his half-brothers, Watban and Sabawi, who are also both held at the US army’s Camp Cropper near Baghdad airport.

“He told them he was happy he would meet his death at the hands of his enemies and be a martyr, not just languish in jail.

“He … gave them letters to his family in anticipation.”

The novelty of the US-sponsored process by which Saddam was condemned on November 5 has left considerable room for wrangling over the timing of any execution among rival factions and between Washington and Baghdad.

AGENCIES

A few Iranian diplomats who were invited to Baghdad by the Iraqi President to discuss improvement of regional security issues, were arrested by U.S. forces and accused of planning to incite attacks on an already war stricken country.

“The attempt is totally illegal and in contrast with international regulations. It is not reasonable and therefore holds disappointing consequences,” stated Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman, Mohammad Ali Husseini in protest.

“As the Iraqi President, Jalal Talebani notified in his statements, these diplomats were invited by the Iraqi state for cooperation and so the Iraqi state is responsible to release them. The occupiers must be questioned based on international rules,” he added.

Eventually, the Swiss ambassador to Tehran was summoned to the foreign ministry and asked to convey the protest of Iran to U.S. officials.

ISNA

The resolution the United Nations Security Council passed against Iranian nuclear program indicated

discrimination the big powers are enforcing against Muslims, head of Iranian Haj Pilgrims, Hojatoleslam Mohammad Mohammadi Reyshahri said on Monday.

Speaking in an International Conference on ‘Holy Qods, Islamic Resistance and Fate of Qods al-Sharif’ in presence of foreign intellectuals and scholars in Mecca, he said that resistance is the only option to thwart double-standard of the big powers against Muslims.

Reyshahri called on the Islamic nations to render spiritual and material support for the Palestinian resistance movement.

He said that despite continued pressure of the big powers on Muslim nations, especially the Palestinians, they are pressing ahead with resistance to uphold the Islamic values and liberate the first Qibla and the third holy shrine from occupation.

“Currently, Palestine is passing hard period. Palestine, Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon are suffering from foreign intervention. So, the Palestinians could not pin hope on the resolutions being passed by the United Nations calling for an end to occupation of Palestinian territories,” he said.

He said that the United States does not heed resolutions of the United Nations on human rights citing the crimes US troops committed in Afghanistan, Iraq, Abu Ghraib and other prisons since beginning of the international campaign against terrorism.

IRNA

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad here Sunday urged the need for vigilance, given that the nation’s enemies and ill-wishers intend to damage Iranians’ unity by a few worthless documents (resolutions).

The president made the remark at a biannual national festival of top entrepreneurs of martyrs families.

Addressing the enemies, he underlined that now the Iranian nation is more united than ever, adding that irrespective of their will Iran is a nuclear country and that they would better get along with it.

“Today is the day of unity, resistance, consciousness and effort for the Iranian nations. I am confident that thanks to the blessings of God Almighty, the political game being played by the enemies will end up to the benefit of the Iranian nation,” he said.

Meanwhile, the chief executive told those claiming that the Iranian nation is isolated that they are the ones who are isolated, given that they are even rejected by their own people.

“The recent events are a firm document implying that no one is going to help us and that they are even seeking to prevent our development and progress,” he added.

Underlining that Iran should not count on the assistance of any country in its development drive, the president said, “We have been under sanction ever since the victory of the Islamic Revolution. Our nation has achieved great success, despite facing sanctions.” Ahmadinejad said that it is quite obvious that the world ruling system is reluctant to witness the progress of independent nations.

“To achieve their goals, the enemies hide themselves behind the guise of human rights, democracy, freedom and opposition to atomic bomb, being ignorant that their abominable and ugly face is evident even from behind the mask of hypocrisy and deception.

“They meet behind closed doors and decide for the Iranian nation.

A bunch of barbarians, who have been dominating the Middle East region for the past 60 years smile at such decisions with
satisfaction, thinking that they can stop the nation’s advancement through such games,” said the president.

Ahmadinejad noted that once more they made a blunder by not listening to Iran’s advice to learn a lesson from the history, wake up and stop dreaming.

Turning to the adversary’s attempts to encourage Iran to suspend its enrichment process, even for a short while on the pretext of technical problems, he said, “There is vice behind their proposals.

They wished to publicize in the world about Iran’s withdrawal, but thanks God their plots were uncovered.”
The president said that given the enemies heavy defeat vis-a-vis Iran, they had no option rather than issuing a resolution banning supply of nuclear parts and long-range missiles to Iran.

“But today, we do not need their assistance and our enemies are worried that we are self-sufficient,” he said.

Ahmadinejad pointed to the current world situation as well as the interconnections between countries and regretted that today due to dominance of non-divine thoughts all world relations have been stained.

“This is while, on the world political scene, the cornerstone of relations have been laid on lying, aggression, deception and hypocrisy,” said the president.

Ahmadinejad said that in economic fields they intend to stop the nation’s productivity to prepare the grounds for selling their products to Iran at high prices.

“Meanwhile, in the cultural field, they repeat the motto of respecting the culture of all nations, while they spend hundreds of billions of dollars to annihilate other cultures and have hegemony on them,” he said.

IRNA

The UN Security Council has unanimously approved an amended European draft resolution which calls for a ban on trade with Iran in goods related to its nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

Shortly before the vote on Saturday, diplomats quoted Russia as telling its colleagues on the council that it would support the sanctions.

The final draft ordered all countries to ban the supply of specified materials and technology that could contribute to Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.

An annex to the draft lists persons and organisations involved in nuclear and missile programmes that will have their assets frozen.

The text warns Iran to comply with the demands, or the council will “adopt appropiate measures under Article 41 of Chapter Seven” of the charter, a reference to non-military sanctions.

“Today we are placing Iran in the small category of states under Security Council sanctions,” Alejandro Wolff, the acting US ambassador, told the council before the 15-0 vote on Saturday.

Vitaly Churkin, Russia’s UN ambassador, who was successful in watering down parts of the resolution, emphasised that the resolution did not permit any use of force.

A Western diplomat privy to the talks said that Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, had insisted on seeing the final text before the vote.

Putin called George Bush, his US counterpart, to discuss the resolution and they agreed on the need to act, Blain Rethmeier, a spokesman for Bush, said.

‘Unified position’

The two leaders “stressed the importance of maintaining a unified position on Iran’s nuclear programme”, Rethmeier said.

During negotiations, a mandatory travel ban was dropped at Russia’s insistence.

Instead, the draft resolution calls on all countries “to exercise vigilance” regarding the entry or transit through their territory of those on a UN list that names 12 top Iranians involved in the country’s nuclear and missile programmes.

It asks member states to notify the Security Council committee that will monitor the sanctions when the listed Iranians show up in their country.

‘Bullying powers’

The vote took place exactly two months after Britain, France and Germany first introduced a draft resolution following Iran’s failure to comply with an August 31 council deadline, to halt its sensitive nuclear fuel work.

The European draft had been amended several times as Russia and China, which have close economic and energy ties with Tehran, deemed it too tough and likely to damage trade with the Iranians, while Washington sought a tougher text.

Iran says its nuclear programme is strictly peaceful and aimed at providing electricity for a growing population.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, said on Thursday that nothing would stop Iran from pushing ahead with its nuclear programme.

Iran’s response

“The bullying powers today, in confronting Iran’s peaceful  nuclear technology, are faced with a sea of courageous people,” Ahmadinejad said in a speech.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker said on Saturday that Iran’s relationship with the UN’s nuclear watchdog would be altered if sanctions are imposed.

“If they intend to deprive the Iranian nation of its certain right to nuclear technology by a resolution … parliament will reconsider the nature of its relationship with the IAEA,” Gholamali Haddadadel told state television.

He said parliament would have to discuss a plan, already approved by the parliament’s national security committee, that wants a serious reconsideration in Iran’s relation with the IAEA.

AGENCIES

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Thursday derided US President George W. Bush for his accusations against Iran.

Addressing a huge crowd in the city of Eslamabad-e Gharb in this western province, he said “We would like US president to send half an hour message every day to see reaction.”
President Bush had called on Iranians not to go to polls in the parliamentary election last year, but to no avail.

Referring to Bush threats on imposing sanctions and isolating the Islamic Republic of Iran on nuclear program, he said, “You have been isolated in the world and if you do not believe it you and UK Prime Minister Tony Blair could arrange a trip to other countries to see how the world nations would welcome you.”
Peaceful application of nuclear technology is legitimate right of our nation, he said adding that it is not clear whether the US and Britain do not really know or do not want to recognize Iranian rights, adding that they think they can create rift among the nation through such words but they do not know that our determined nation are united to defend their legitimate rights.

“It is 27 years that the US and Britain have stood against our nation to stop national progress but they failed.”
Saddam’s defeat during eight years of imposed war (1980-1988) is a good example to the US hostility to Iranian nation, he pointed out.

“Big powers cannot tolerate our development and progress,” the president said.

President Ahmadinejad, accompanied by members of his cabinet, arrived in Kermanshah Tuesday for a three-day visit.

His current visit is his 23rd to various provinces of the country since the start of his initiative of bringing the government closer to the people.

He and members of his cabinet will hold a session in Kermanshah city later in the day to discuss the province’s problems before they return to Tehran.

IRNA